0.3 Finding US News, Fast & Accurately

Four questions to run a headline through before it changes what you do.

  • 0.3
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About this lecture

Finding a US market headline is only the beginning. How do you verify it, judge what's already priced in, and decide whether it matters?

In this lecture, Pratham introduces a four-question information workflow:

  1. Where can you find the news quickly?
  2. How do you verify it against the original source?
  3. Is it already priced in?
  4. Does it matter to the market you're watching?

We look at following a headline back to the original release, separating information from interpretation, and comparing the 2-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 around the same event.

You'll also see how to organise your information feed by function: official sources, headline relays, analyst reads and your trading venue. The aim is a purposeful routine for understanding market moves.

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

MochaLearn is a free A to Z course on understanding and trading US stocks and commodities, built for Indian traders.

Key takeaways

  1. Run every headline through four questions: where did you find it, can you verify it at the source, is it already priced in, and does it matter to your market?
  2. Follow a headline back to the original release, and keep information apart from interpretation.
  3. Read the move in related markets around the event, the 2-year Treasury yield against the S&P 500, before deciding what the news meant.
  4. Organise your feed by function: official sources, headline relays, analyst reads, and your trading venue.

Terms in this lecture

  • 10-K and 10-QA 10-K is the audited annual report a US listed company files with the SEC; a 10-Q is the unaudited quarterly version.…
  • 13F filingA 13F is the quarterly filing every US institutional manager with over $100 million must make, listing its stock…
  • 2-year Treasury yieldThe two-year Treasury yield is the bond market's bet on where the Fed will hold rates over the next two years, so it…
  • 8-KAn 8-K is the filing a US company must make within four business days of a material event: a merger, a CEO leaving, a…
  • Breakeven inflationBreakeven inflation is the gap between an ordinary Treasury yield and its inflation-protected twin of the same…
  • CboeCboe is the Chicago-based exchange group that runs the largest US options market and four US stock exchanges grown out…
  • CME FedWatchCME FedWatch turns futures on the overnight rate into a probability for each outcome at every Fed meeting. It is what…
  • CME GroupCME Group is the Chicago exchange where futures on US stock indices, interest rates, gold, oil and copper trade…
  • Consensus estimateThe consensus estimate is the average analyst forecast for a company's earnings or an economic number. Markets price…
  • CPICPI, the consumer price index, is the monthly US measure of what a basket of goods and services costs households…
  • Dot plotThe dot plot is the chart of where each Fed official expects the policy rate to be over the next few years, one dot…
  • Economic calendarAn economic calendar lists every scheduled release of the week with its time and consensus forecast. Set one to IST…
  • EIA petroleum status reportThe EIA weekly petroleum status report counts US crude and fuel stocks, released Wednesday at 8:00 PM IST, 9:00 PM in…
  • Enterprise valueEnterprise value is market capitalization plus debt minus cash: the price of buying the whole business, lenders…
  • EPSEPS is earnings per share: net profit divided by shares outstanding. On results day it is compared with the published…
  • Fed funds rateThe fed funds rate is the target range for overnight lending between US banks, the one rate the Fed sets directly. It…
  • FOMCThe FOMC is the Federal Open Market Committee, the twelve voters inside the Fed who set the policy rate at eight…
  • FOMC minutesThe FOMC minutes are the written record of a Fed meeting, released three weeks after the decision at 11:30 PM IST…
  • Form 4Form 4 is the SEC filing a company insider must make within two business days of buying or selling the company's…
  • FREDFRED is the free St Louis Fed database of every major US economic series going back decades, charts and downloads with…

Quiz

  1. You have found a headline. What does the workflow ask next?
  2. Which two series does the lecture compare around the same event?
  3. "Already priced in" means…